6/5/2023 - 11:27:00
DTN Midday Grain Comments 06/05 10:55 Corn, Soybean Futures Lower at Midday; Wheat Mixed Corn futures are 10 to 12 cents lower at midday Monday; soybean futures are 4 to 6 cents lower; wheat futures are 2 cents lower to 5 cents higher. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst MARKET SUMMARY: Corn futures are 10 to 12 cents lower at midday Monday; soybean futures are 4 to 6 cents lower; wheat futures are 2 cents lower to 5 cents higher. The U.S. stock market is mixed with the S&P up 10 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is flat. Interest rate products are mixed. Energies are firmer with crude .80 higher and natural gas up .10. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are mixed with gold up 5.00. CORN: Corn futures are 10 to 12 cents lower up front with spreads softer as new crop fades from the highs, off 3 to 4 cents. Trade is watching forecasts and outside markets as early spillover strength eases at midday. Ethanol margins should be steady with corn holding the range, and unleaded extending recent gains, although they have backed off the overnight highs. The daily wire will likely remain quiet in the short term. Weekly export inspections remained solid at 1.181 million metric tons (mmt). Basis continues to hold a softer tone with better movement possibilities as fieldwork wraps up with most rains expected to stay in the Western Corn Belt in the short term. The second crop in Brazil continues toward the home stretch with some recent rains, but drier seasonal tone in place overall. Weekly crop progress should show planting effectively complete, emergence ahead of the 5-year average, and conditions steady to slightly lower Monday afternoon. On the July chart we have support at the 20-day moving average at $5.86 with momentum fading at the $6.10 area again Monday morning. SOYBEANS: Soybean futures are 4 to 6 cents lower with trade fading back from the overnight test of support. Oil is leading products lower and expected weather improvement in the U.S. is weighing on the market. Meal is narrowly mixed and oil is 60 to 80 points lower. Weekly inspections are in line seasonally at 214,247 metric tons (mt). Basis will likely remain a little softer with more buyers rolling to the back months. Planting should be on the homestretch nationally with the east remaining drier. The weekly crop progress number are likely to show planting and emergence solidly above the 5-year average, with first conditions on the low end of the last five years, just as corn started last week. July chart support is the lower Bollinger Band at $12.67 which we bounced off last week with the 20-day moving average at $13.56 tested overnight before we pulled back. WHEAT: Wheat futures are 2 cents lower to 5 cents higher at midday with Minneapolis action leading. We are drawing closer to the ramp up of harvest for the Plains. Spring wheat is seeing warmer short-term temps along with drier short-term Black Sea action. There is more grain corridor talk and Ukraine is reportedly taking the initiative in the war. Plains rains are expected to continue but the potential for improvement for this year's crop is limited. SRW and spring wheat areas should move along development-wise with slightly better conditions expected on the weekly progress report. Heading remains in line with average and spring wheat is likely to be caught up to the 5-year average on planting and emergence. The dollar is just off the recent highs, with Matif wheat just a touch higher to start the week. Weekly export inspections softened a little at 291,559 mt. On the KC July chart, the lower Bollinger band at $7.62 is support with $8.00 becoming the first level of support, which we closed solidly above Friday with the 20-day moving average above the market at $8.38. David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2023 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.